Assessing how far behind the Cardinals offense is from the best offenses in the playoffs and identifying a few diamond in the rough candidates for 2026.
The World Series concluded on Saturday, and despite the result, it was still a spirited battle between two incredibly fun offenses to watch. What were some takeaways from these playoffs, that can inform the direction, and the Cardinals process to have them back amongst the best in the league? Quality of at-bats, balls in play, the bottom of the lineup feeding the top, the ability to avoid making outs, and timely slugging. These are the core philosophies that are driving the league’s best offenses in modern baseball.
Let’s start with the quality of at-bats and balls in play because those two things go hand in hand in this conversation. The Toronto Blue Jays lead baseball in K% this season at 17.8% as a team. The World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers were 12th in baseball with a 21.9 K% . The St. Louis Cardinals finished just ahead of the Dodgers 11th at 21.8%. Neither the Dodgers nor the Blue Jays featured a hitter during the playoffs that had a K% higher than 28%, which means the likes of Jordan Walker (33%) and Nolan Gorman (34%) either need to focus on their quality of at-bats very intentionally, or they aren’t solutions to a rebuilding offense that the top of the league is starting to shift away from the extreme three true outcome philosophy. Other playoff teams that ranked in the top 10 in K% were the Padres (19.1%), Brewers (20.3%), Cubs (20.7%), and Phillies (21.7%).
What about the ability to create and drive offense? Playoff teams who were in the top 10 in wRC+ include; Yankees (119), Dodgers (113), Mariners (113), Blue Jays (112), Cubs (110), Phillies (109), and Brewers (107). The Cardinals as a team finished with a 96 wRC+, good for 19th in all of baseball. The first half of the season was really fun to watch, as the offense took the league by surprise, but once opposing teams had a book on guys’ weaknesses, the unit as a whole fell apart. Certain guys like Burleson and Herrera continued to hit and produce, but whether it be a flaw that was exploited (Gorman/Walker) or an injury hampering a player’s performance (Donovan, Nootbaar, Arenado, Winn) a majority of the offense took a big step back. The Cardinals seem to be hopeful that Victor Scott II can take another step forward offensively this offseason, and the impending arrival of top prospect JJ Wetherholt does inspire some optimism. However, you do factor in what appears to be a more than likely departure of one of the team’s better hitters in Brendan Donovan, and it’s no lock that Willson Contreras returns either.
The movie Moneyball (and its original team, the 2002 Oakland A’s) taught us that the ability to get on base and avoid making outs is an extremely effective way to produce consistent offense, and, you guessed it, several playoff teams ranked in the top 10 in on-base percentage. The Blue Jays (.333), Brewers (.332), Yankees (.332), Phillies (.328), Dodgers (.327), Red Sox (.324), Padres (.321), and Cubs (.320) were 8 of the top 10 teams in baseball in OBP, and it helped push them to the playoffs. The Cardinals finished 18th at .314 (Ironic – STL area code is 314), and while the gap between them and the top 10 isn’t exhorbatant, perhaps leaning into guys with a bat-first profile like Ivan Herrera at Catcher over Pedro Pages on a more regular basis could help facilitate an additional bat into the DH spot that could make a real difference. Ultimately, you have 27 outs to play with daily, and the fewer you make, the more you win! Simple and cheesy, but it drives the point home in my opinion.
I also looked at the statistic xwOBA and wouldn’t you believe it, playoff teams litter the top 10! Starting with the Yankees at (.349), Dodgers (.344), Cubs (.343), Blue Jays (.339), Phillies (.336), Tigers (.329), and Mariners (.329). The Cardinals finished in the bottom 10 at 23rd overall, producing a .316 xwOBA. An MLB average xwOBA is .324, and the Cardinals finished with 5 players at or above average in this category. Lars Nootbaar (.324), Alec Burleson (.352), Brendan Donovan (.356), Willson Contreras (.369), and Ivan Herrera (.380) were 5 of the 186 players who had a minimum of 100 balls in play that were also at or above average in xwOBA. The depth of this is what’s staggering. 5 of the most prominent offenses in baseball had 8 or 9 hitters who produced a .324 or above; those teams were the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Yankees, Cubs, and Mariners. When you talk about “no breaks” in an offense, this is generally what is being referred to. To further that point, and the initial one I made about the bottom of the lineup feeding the top – is not a new concept, but not one that the Cardinals were able to do with efficacy this season while names like Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and Pedro Pages were consistently hitting at the bottom of the order and each suffering through their own myriad of offensive struggles, both we, and they, would like to forget.
I also wanted to share a stat about the continued importance of hitting home runs in today’s modern game of baseball. Teams were 30-4 when hitting more home runs than their opponent in the postseason. The Cardinals had just 1 player eclipse 20 home runs this season, Willson Contreras; both Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson finished with 19, and it’s fair to assume both could have hit 20+ had neither spent time on the IL. The Cardinals still severely lack in the power department, and it will be fascinating to see how the new front office decides to address this glaring flaw. There are a few offensive pieces that I think could fly under the radar this offseason, but according to the disparities between their wOBA’s and xwOBA’s, they might be worth a look.
That list includes Gleyber Torres, who was mentioned by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, as a potential target this offseason. IF the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado AND Brendan Donovan, and perhaps they’re also ready to wash their hands of Nolan Gorman as well, then there could be an opportunity to bring in a guy like Torres, who crushes lefties and takes AWESOME at-bats highlighted by his 17.1 Chase%, which was 100th percentile in baseball.
Josh Bell is another name who could be of interest, who has the 2nd largest disparity of any available free agent bat this offseason, being .046 points higher expected than his produced result. This could be a result that could come to fruition if Willson Contreras is moved – obviously, Alec Burleson would also be a natural replacement at 1B, assuming he also isn’t moved as well, which I’m highly skeptical of, given how often he was praised by the organization for the steps forward that were taken and being named consistently as taking advantage of their runway. Still, Bell, a switch-hitting thumper, who brings presence to the middle of an order, and can also play 1B/DH could hold some appeal depending on which adventure the Cardinals choose this offseason.
A trade FOR this player still seems unlikely to be something the Cardinals will do this offseason, but, with a more creative front office group in place, perhaps they do things that are unconventional to the things we are conditioned to expect under the previous regime. Luis Robert Jr had a .041 xwOBA higher than his wOBA this past season, and it would NOT shock me at all to see Robert have the same kind of re-awakening the way Andrew Vaughn did after being traded away from a place of destitution in Chicago to a better culture or winning environment elsewhere. We saw in the recent past that Robert can be a 30-30 guy who can play a Gold Glove centerfield, and those guys do NOT grow on trees! He has the kind of boom or bust upside on, essentially what would amount to a 1-year deal, that if it pops, you can flip him to a contender at the deadline and reap the benefits of trading a rental star player.
The last 2 I will tie together just because of how similar they are. Lars Nootbaar’s Haglund’s deformities diagnosis is not a death sentence to his career, and I am now in a place where trading him seems highly unlikely in the offseason. Mid-season? Sure. But let’s assume he goes this offseason, still. Max Kepler is a name that those in the analytics world have long had their eye on, and if the Cardinals wanted to invest in the short-term deal for “player x” whose market didn’t develop. I think there’s a level where he could make some sense. Michael Conforto is the other outfielder, who ranks number 1 in terms of disparity, you look at ALL of the expected numbers compared to his season results, whether it be expected BA, expected Slug, xwOBA compared to wOBA. Everything screams positive regression, and I would bet that another smart organization, like the Dodgers did this year, will snatch him up quickly this offseason for another 1 year “prove it” deal.
All of these options are band aids, yes. But, they all offer additional offensive value in their profiles that, if it pops, you’re either a potentially surprising contender or you have ANOTHER trade chip to flip at the deadline to continue adding to your already growing, impressive, group. If they bust, it’s a 1-year deal in a season that you may not have a better internal options for anyway, and you move on at season’s end when more of your youth may be more ready to contribute. One thing to remember. Chaim Bloom has historically slow-played his prospects, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in St. Louis. So, we may see a couple or three band aid signings with the intention to buy time for development or with the intention of possibly flipping at the deadline in July. One thing is for certain, I’m ready to stop speculating, and I’m ready to start evaluating what’s about to unfold.
-Thanks for reading