Continuing my series of articles that take a look at NL Central teams using several different projection systems, I now zoom in on the Cincinnati Reds. Last week I noticed that the Pirates could have problems scoring runs, but the Reds are here to outdo them. I will re-do the Pirates article down the road, and there’s plenty of time for that and more work to do with some of their recent acquisitions. I should not have scoffed at the Pirates, because now they’ve made some upgrades that may put them over the edge vs the Reds and Cardinals. The dust of the offseason is still settling, and pitchers and catchers will be reporting soon, but the actual season is still sort of distant… foggy at best.
This week I have decided to add in OOPSY projections, because the name is super funny (projections often get it wrong) and in the spirit of this series over the years, I try to bring in as many projection systems as possible. This is just as much an exercise for me as it is for you, so I hope you dig this poring over data that you could probably look up, but it’s fun to read about and compare/contrast these different systems, no?
I have left out systems like PECOTA because they are not too accurate and are not readily available on fangraphs. Last fall I analyzed the projections from last year and found ZiPS and The Bat to be most accurate, but I could be suffering from just looking at one year and one team. But anyway, I’m incorporating ZiPS, Depth Charts which was actually pretty accurate last time I wrote this, The Bat X (*or the Bat for pitchers), and now OOPSY because it’s been known to be pretty accurate too. It incorporates a lot of statcast data so I want to include it.
So I’ve been spitballing here, getting to know what the other teams the Cardinals are directly competing with are going to look like this year, on paper at least. Last year the Reds were a playoff team. I had them pegged as about as good as they were, but maybe not to make the postseason. Can they repeat a wild card this year and appease their fans after an early playoff exit? Or were they more of a fluke team in 2025…
The Reds key producer from their position player side is still Ely De La Cruz, who’s consensus projection is over 4 WAR. He is a defensively pretty good shortstop with 20+ HR power. Most of the projections think he will hit at least as well as last year, but none of them outside of OOPSY have him topping what he did in 2024, where he was definitely a little better hitter than he was last season. That said, he is still going to derive a lot of value from being a plus on defense at shortstop. Ely De La Cruz is no Masyn Winn defensively, but he is the better hitter. I must note however, that OOPSY sees De La Cruz 2026 as the potential breakout player many saw him as when he was a rookie.
Where do the projection systems agree on De La Cruz? ZiPS and Fangraphs DC are closest to agreement, with The Bat X pessimistic and OOPSY being high on the hopium.
Matt McLain is a more defense forward player over at the keystone for Cincinnati. He should quietly put up over 2 WAR while hitting a little below league average. Run preventing middle infield for the Reds.
Where do the projections agree? Depth Charts and OOPSY both have him at 2.4 WAR in 2026. ZiPS is more optimistic and The Bat X doesn’t think much of Matt.
Perhaps more exciting, 22 year old Sal Stewart will be a player to watch out for: ZiPS says 2.7 WAR but Depth Charts thinks more like 1.5 WAR. The other systems are more in line with DC so it would appear ZiPS is the outlier and that maybe Stewart isn’t that exciting.
Eugenio Suarez is also sort of exciting, because he is the addition to the team largely at DH. Suarez is a low batting average high power hitter. He will most likely not hit as many home runs as he did last year, but he will add 30+ home run power to the Reds lineup. That certainly has helped a lineup that could use some blast power. He will surely hit a lot of home runs in Cincinnati, but he strikes out so much that he’s going to be around a 110 wRC+ hitter. He should be about a 1.4 WAR player according to a consensus, none of them see him as a breakout player.
So far, neither the Reds or Pirates position player roster is projected for as much WAR as the Cardinals, but both team’s starting rotations are twice as good as the Cardinals rotation. In fact, the Reds and Pirates rotations should be about equal in value, with Pittsburgh’s rotation having a higher upside, and the Reds’ rotation locking in with five 2+ WAR pitchers lead by Hunter Greene, who will likely finish with around 3.4 WAR. Where am I getting all these numbers? Well, from these four projections systems. Basically, the whole Reds starting rotation is at the least, pretty darn good.
- Reds might have the lowest projected position player total in the NL Central before the season starts
- Very solid rotation that stacks up with Pittsburgh’s minus the elite ace… likelihood to be slightly better overall than the Pirates’
- Suarez could make or break this team, but so could Ely De La Cruz… if he goes over 5 WAR their chances increase. If Suarez hits 50 HR this year, their chances increase even more.
- Andrew Abbott or Chase Burns could surprise as the team ace, but my bet’s still on Greene
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the Reds as battling it out for last place with the Pirates and Cardinals… And it might be only the Cardinals they can beat, leaving the Redbirds in the basement. I won’t be making my final “predictions” until around the WBC, with the Brewers and Cubs still to go and re-do’s on both the Pirates and Cardinals. My methodology is to look at each team’s top 20 players, with a minimum of 11 position players.
Next week I will take a look at the Milwaukee Brewers!
1977
Continuing along with another series I’ve been writing, about every year of music and culture in my life. As a musician and baseball fan, I’ll be focusing on mostly music, and some baseball factoids, but also movies and the current events of the time. I have found my favorite albums from 1975 and 1976, so on to 1977…
1977 was Jimmy Carter’s first year as president. When he was on the campaign trail in 1980, I actually got to meet the man as a child, and it is one of my first memories actually, meeting a president. One of the best presidents in history, if you ask me, but I’m also judging him on his whole life, not just his presidency. Anyhow, he was sworn in on January 20th, 1977.
There was a solar eclipse back in 1977. Cambodia and Vietnam fought each other. A huge part of my childhood began with the release of Star Wars, although I didn’t see it until I was a little older. They would show this movie in the theaters years after it came out. They still do and how many times it will be re-released is anyone’s guess. It was so popular that it was a box office hit FOR SIX YEARS. Probably not until The Empire Strikes Back debuted. May 25, 1977 was its original release date.
On July 13, 1977 Somalia declared war on Ethiopia, and NYC had an electricity blackout that lasted into the next day, resulting in looting and arson. Around July 21st, the Libyan-Egyptian war broke out. On August 4, 1977 Jimmy Carter created the US Dept of Energy. The military controlled government of Uruguay turned power back over to the people through general elections. The first test flight of the Space Shuttle Enterprise was successful.
The Big Ear radio telescope at Ohio State University received a transmission from deep space. Three members of Lynyrd Skynyrd died in a plane crash. October 26, 1977 is considered the date of the elimination of smallpox.
Punk rock started to hit the mainstream.
In baseball, the first year of familiar franchises the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays was 1977. This was baseball’s third expansion. Prior to that, the Seattle Pilots relocated to Milwaukee and became the Brewers. I did not know that! The NL did not expand, and remained at 12 teams until the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins were introduced to the world in 1993. In what would’ve been both a popular and very unpopular world series, the Yankees beat the Dodgers. It ended a fifteen year Yankee drought and was their 21st world series championship.
The Royals and Phillies had more wins than the Yankees 100 in the regular season, but just by a game or two. The Cardinals and Cubs were mid level teams in the NL East, with the Phillies and Pirates being the two teams to beat. The Cincinnati Reds finished second to the LA Dodgers in… the NL West?? ok!
Rod Carew and George Foster were the MVPs, Sparky Lyle (baseball name!) and Steve Carlton were the Cy Young Award winners, Eddie Murray and Andre Dawson were the rookies of the year, and Rollie Fingers got his fingers on a Relief Man of the Year Award (along with Bill Campbell in the AL).
Back to Rod Carew: he batted .388!!!!! What?? George Foster was no slouch either, hitting 52 HR and knocking in 149 RBI for the Reds of the west. Nolan Ryan threw 341 strikeouts, not to be outshined by the hitters. The NL won the All-Star Game.
Bob Watson, John Mayberry, and Jack Brohamer (another baseball name!) all hit for the cycle in 1977! Willie Stargell reached 400 home runs vs the Cardinals in 1977, and Lou Brock stole his 900th stolen base on September 30th! Lou Brock also surpassed Ty Cobb in stolen bases just 7 SB prior to #900.
The Cardinals attendance went back up in numbers this season with an above .500 team that finished just ahead of the Chicago Cubs. The first Mariners game ever was a loss to the Angels, while the first Blue Jays game ever had Toronto over the Chicago White Sox. A Canadian pitcher playing for Boston, Ferguson Jenkins, threw the first shut out in Exhibition Stadium vs the Blue Jays, in their first month of existence. The White Sox selected Harold Baines as the #1 pick in the 1977 MLB draft.
Top 10 Albums of 1977
#1: Heart – ‘Little Queen’ This is my album of the year for 1977. I’ve always liked the song “Barracuda” as does everyone I know. Roger Fisher is one of my favorite unsung guitar heroes, and the Wilson sisters are among my favorite singers of any genre. I think both their 1975 album and this one are perfect albums, but ‘Little Queen’ is their best album of all. An absolute classic of the rock genre. Ahem.
#2: Rush – ‘A Farewell To Kings’ this particular album is many Rush fan’s favorite one, but it’s not my favorite Rush album. However, it is REALLY good still, for me it’s all about three songs: “Closer To The Heart”, “Xanadu”, and “Cygnus X-1” being among the best rock songs of all time. The rest of the album ain’t bad either and it flows start to finish. I struggled putting this album this highly on the list, but man, those three songs are just life changing. Farewell!
#3: Fela Kuti & Africa ’70 – ‘Zombie’ here is my sleeper pick, that I would not have even ranked in my top 10 without research… even though I’m familiar with Fela Kuti I need to know the discography better. Speaking of mid 70’s funk and punk, this is perhaps the most funk punk album of all time. The sound is mostly funk, but the spirit is very punk. The genre is called Afrobeat. The Nigerian government hated this album and Kuti’s own elderly mother was thrown out a window resulting in her death, while his commune was destroyed by the military. Fela Kuti was severely beaten in the process, but survived. ‘Zombie’ has made a couple of different major top 100 of the 1970’s music lists. An absolutely legendary album.
#4: Wire – ‘Pink Flag’ Funny thing is, I actually have met a member of The Wire at The Gingerman, an old bar neighboring The Metro in Chicago. He was having a drink at the bar talking to a cool younger lady. I think that bar is now known as the G-Man, an idiocracy level downgrade for a name of a bar, but whatever. They always had a good jukebox. So far I have been reviewing some proto punk albums, and this is the one that has struck me as most influential. Its production and sound sound much clearer and louder than other albums from this time period, every layer is really apparent in their sound. Not only is it awesome, but it’s the very first Wire album, showing poise and maturity from the get go. This is another album that I was unfamiliar with prior to this writing that I am glad to have found. I am sure I have heard it before but have neglected it since. It’s almost as if they’re inventing new genres of alt rock with every track.
#5: MX-80 Sound – ‘Hard Attack’ This album should be in every punk rock fan’s collection, but it’s not. The only reason this isn’t ranked higher than ‘Pink Flag’ is that the production isn’t nearly as cool, and the music is a little more jammy, but this is a proto punk masterpiece collection of songs from a band in 1977. Blending in multiple other genres as the band finds its way, creating new paths in the process. This is so far ahead of its time, cannot really overstate it.
#6: Talking Heads – ‘77’ Speaking of debuts from important bands such as Wire, here is the debut from Talking Heads! I mostly love this because of bassist Tina Weymouth’s playing, but the whole band is really good, and it’s a really fun listen. It’s more of a prediction of what is to come from this band, but it’s among the very best releases of 1977.
#7: Television – ‘Marquee Moon’ At the roots of punk rock are many different genres presented in different ways. I am not sure what other genre you would file Television under, other than that they kind of sound post-punk, already. Same with Wire, but, Television might be the only band that blended some prog rock into their punk sound, and even a little classic rock too, but making it all sound fresh and new.
#8: Rennaissance – ‘Novella’ described as symphonic prog, I find this album to be more relaxing than either genre. This is put on a sunny, cool afternoon, but stay inside watching the sun glint through the leaves music. Just space out to this and relax, thinking of other times, other places… and yes, I like some more obscure prog rock, too. I would have more King Crimson on the list but their first era ended prior to my birth! And by the way, if you love mellotron like I do, you need to hear this.
#9: The Residents – ‘Fingerprince’ is a hodgepodge of early Residents tracks, from what I can tell. One youtube reviewer said, “this is what insanity sounds like” and I tend to agree. There are parts of this album that invented early Primus sounds… Primus even covered them. But this is the only band I would compare to Chrome from this time, so that’s pretty cool. I have only discovered this album recently so I would have more to say about it, but it surely deserves a spot on this list, along with these other bands inventing new sounds!
#10: Iggy Pop – ‘The Idiot’ + ‘Lust For Life’ Iggy Pop or Bowie in this slot, and I pick Iggy here. Bowie had a trilogy, but I’d rather hear these two Pop albums.
See you next week with the Brewers and 1978. May the fruit of our labors be blessed.