When I added Nathan Church to the vote, I compared him to Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak. I’d like to apologize for doing so. I ridiculed those choices and I’m not going to do the same for Church. I don’t know where Church will place on my list, but him being on the list makes sense. He appears to be a defensive-oriented prospect who we hope can hit, who in fact did hit a lot in both AA and AAA and he’s still going to be 25-years-old. He certainly fits the profile of a top 20 prospect in a way I don’t think the other two did. This may be the first year where the voters don’t make an outright bad choice, so good job so far!
- JJ Wetherholt
- Liam Doyle
- Rainiel Rodriguez
- Quinn Mathews
- Jurrangelo Cjintje
- Joshua Baez
- Leonardo Bernal
- Jimmy Crooks
- Brandon Clarke
- Tink Hence
- Tekoah Roby
- Tanner Franklin
- Brycen Mautz
- Nathan Church
Comparable Player Poll
I’m going to do something a bit more unconventional for this vote. You see I couldn’t figure out a good player to compare Hancel Rincon with. Namely, I couldn’t figure out a vote where the result didn’t already seem obvious to me. Unless you guys are significantly higher or lower on him than I think anyway. So I’m forcing him into a vote here today. It is a vote between him and two pitchers who won their own three-person polls.
Andrew Dutkanych IV was drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft, and was widely considered a higher round talent who dropped because he had Tommy John surgery earlier that year. Last year, in mostly rehab appearances, he showed swing-and-miss, but also some control problems in 9 total appearances, 6 of them in Low A. He’ll be 22 this season.
Mason Molina was also drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft by the Brewers. He lasted two appearances and was traded to the Rangers for middle reliever Grant Anderson. He saw time in both Low A and High A before being included in a trade for Phil Maton. He had a lot of swing and miss, but also had some control problems in High A. He’ll be 22 this season.
Hancel Rincon was not drafted in the 7th round of the 2024 draft, but was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2019. The pandemic delayed his progress and he found himself still in the DSL in the 2021 season. He didn’t show much as a prospect until this past season when he pitched well in High A and then pitched REALLY well in AA until an injury ended his season prematurely. He will be 24.
New Add
Sometimes, I’m forced to pay attention when I run a player in a comparable player poll – and they absolutely wipe out the competition. I ran Won-Bin Cho, who ranked 21st on last year’s list (I think? He ran against Max Rajcic for the 20th best prospect, but the results are lost to history), Zach Levenson, and Colton Ledbetter against each other. Ledbetter received more than half the vote. That got my attention.
Now I don’t think you guys think Cho is the 21st best prospect – it’s a better system and you might have possibly lowered your opinion of him – nonetheless when a guy easily wins a vote against that guy, I feel there’s a possibility you consider him a top 20 prospect. So I’m listening to what the votes are telling me. The votes are telling me to add Colton Ledbetter to the voting.
Jesus Baez, IF – 21
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
I really appreciate the players who I add to the list and leave pretty quickly, because I run out of new things to say at a certain point and that point was quite a few votes ago for Baez. You understand the deal. He is very young for his level, and seemingly acts like it, but performance-wise, it’s kind of hard to argue against the kid. Likely to end up at either 2B or 3B, although that is true for just about any notable infield prospect thanks to the presence of Masyn Winn.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP
Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command
It’s always tough to judge a prospect like Fajardo, who is sort of absurdly young for the level he will pitch at in 2026. Granted, they might put him back in Low A, because he only made 13 starts and he is still only 19. But he is at least on the doorstep to High A. He’s already built up to throw 71 innings and at the lower levels, he missed a lot of bats. All of these are good signs. The scouting numbers are sort of underwhelming, but hard to scoff at 50 potential command and an elite out pitch at the same time.
Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA
Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command
Let’s hope we get good news on Henderson, but for now we are firmly in the uncertain stage. I’ve mentioned it before, but for some reason Henderson’s injury, even if serious, feels like a slight hiccup to me – I’m currently not worried long-term about his injury-proneness. But I don’t have a good reason for that. Feels like a rite of passage for all pitchers. But, it is not guaranteed that he will have a serious injury either. Good luck in figuring out how to weigh this information for your vote.
Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP
Didn’t pitch
Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command
It’s possible I feel that way about Henderson because my comparison point is Cooper Hjerpe. Hjerpe has a higher upside, but has had significant issues with injuries. We’re hoping that the Tommy John solved those issues, that all the previous injuries were in some way connected to the fact that his arm needed to be repaired. Thus repaired, he can be healthy for at least some stretch of time. And we should find out this year somewhat – he had the surgery in April of last year, so he should pitch in 2026.
Colton Ledbetter, 24 – OF
Stats (AA): 535 PAs, .265/.337/.378, 9.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, .114 ISO, .339 BABIP, 112 wRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 50/50 Fielding
You might be mistaken for double checking his stats and scouting numbers, because they don’t exactly line up. It makes more sense if you include his 2024 into the equation. He had actual power in High A, but struck out quite a bit. Actually his 2024 season lines up pretty well with the scouting. It doesn’t mean the scouting is outdated, because the effort to strike out less by Ledbetter seemingly led to a big drop in power. The power may not exist without the bad hit tool. Of course if he manages to maintain the K rate and add power, well then we may have something here.
Chen-Wei Lin, 24 – RHP
Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.17 xFIP
High A: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA/4.80 FIP/2.76 xFIP
What a crazy season. Limited by injuries – you’ll notice the innings per start is pretty low – he struggled with control all season. Walked a lot of guys. But he also struck out a lot of guys and I actually find it crazy that he struck out 20 of the 48 batters he faced in Springfield. Other things went wrong, but that’s a lot of strikeouts. I’d like his stats a lot more if he had thrown 5 innings per start.
Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF
No stats
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 25/50 Game Power, 40/55 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 25/50 Fielding
I apologize, when I re-added Mitchell to the voting, I don’t think I realized he now had scouting numbers on his Fangraphs pages. Mitchell was drafted out of high school, so we should probably expect him to play in the complex leagues, although he is really, really worth paying attention to if the Cardinals send him to full-season Low A ball out the gate. He might be kept in minor league camp later even if they plan for him to start in Low A, just because it’s tough to jump from a high school baseball schedule to a 5 month schedule in A ball.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Scouting (Baseball Savant): /45 Hit, /55 Power, /55 Arm, /45 Field
Thank you to Steve in Alabama – not a random guy I met from Alabama, that is the username of a commentator here – for sharing that Baseball Savant has given Ortiz some scouting grades. He wondered if those were current or potential, but I am relatively sure those are potential grades. They aren’t giving a guy in High A a current power number of 55. And it more less tracks with his stats as well. He has shown swing-and-miss and that is considered his weakness so it makes sense he has a 45 hit tool. Power actually seems high, but I’ll certainly take it, and keep in mind both Low A and High A are not good places for power hitters. And I don’t believe his defense is considered anything to write home about either.
Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field
Presumably, Padilla will be spending the 2026 season in full-season Low A. That means he’ll be at Palm Beach, an incredibly hard place to have power. I would not not necessarily expect his potential power to show up and really any increase in power, however marginal, should be seen as a huge positive given the difficult run environment he will be entering. But yeah as things stand, it doesn’t seem like 2026 will answer the question on Padilla’s power and if it does, he’s going to be way higher on this list next season.
Tai Peete, OF – 20
Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+
Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding
You guys still surprise me sometimes, but I also feel like I have a pretty good handle on prospects that this community likes and prospects this community will not like. And I was pretty sure this community wasn’t going to vote for Peete. You guys value performance and proximity probably more than a typical outlet will and it’s not hard to see why, but Peete has neither of those things going for him. He’s a scout pick. Scout picks require a bit more faith than someone actually performing.