Before I get into the meat of this article, I want to be clear that I think this has only a slightly higher chance of happening than the Cardinals signing Tarik Skubal, which is to say I don’t think there’s much of a chance at all. I’m also not necessarily advocating for it, but I am sort of intrigued at this kind of move, because there really aren’t many, if any, more impactful bullpen moves a team can make than sign Adrian Morejon, who provides lots of elite innings. And few teams had a worse bullpen than the Cardinals.
I had a great difficulty determining what Morejon’s future contract could be, which is a very important aspect on whether or not to sign him. It was easy enough to figure out his WAR estimates – until ZiPS comes along, any estimate will be imperfect, but I felt comfortable labeling him a 2 WAR reliever. Morejon enters this offseason at 28-years-old, so I estimated a four year contract, although five may very well be needed. 2 WAR reliever, 4 years. Should be easy to figure out that contract right?
Uh no. I do what I always do when estimating contracts, which is knock off half a win for each subsequent year, which is mostly accounting for injury. And while I’d love to pretend Morejon won’t decline at all for the sake of a more realistic contract, I’m very determined to maintain that it a reasonable thing to assume for a reliever, who is even more subject to randomness. Problem was this system spit out a 4 year, $50 million contract. That ain’t happening.
If I am adamant any future contract needs to bake in a normal decline, that means my WAR per dollar figure is wildly wrong. Relievers don’t fit under the same framework that starting pitchers and position players do. Edwin Diaz got 5 years, $100 million at 29-years-old with an opt-out after three years. Diaz was closing games and Morejon was not, which I do think matters with a future contract, so I don’t think he’s looking at $100 million, but he’s looking at more than $50 million. My point in bringing up Diaz was also that he was absolutely not projected for 10 wins when he signed that contract.
I did find a solution. According to Michael Rosen of Fangraphs, he looked into the overpaying of relievers, at least from a projected standpoint, and found that relievers in the 2020s got paid $15 million per projected win. There we go. At that price, Morejon is looking at a future contract of 4 years, $75 million. Technically, by my half a win deduction, adding a year to that would not actually add anything to that price. Because deducting half a win from his fifth year lands him at replacement level. Part of me also thinks 5 years is more realistic, at least in a normal free agent market without an impending lockout. This might be lowballing considering what Diaz got a few years ago, so it wouldn’t shock me if he got more, but I do think not closing will lower his potential price.
Estimated contract: 5 years, $80 million
A free agent profile on a specific reliever is a bit unusual, so I thought I’d stray from my usual format and instead list some reasons to sign Morejon and some reasons to not sign Morejon. First off, because he’s not really that well-known. If I’m proposing a $75 million contract to a reliever you’ve never heard of, it’d be best if I explained why exactly he might get that contract and why it might make sense for the Cardinals. And in the opposite direction, if you just see the best reliever on the market and a very weak bullpen he would help, maybe reasons not to sign him will ease the pain when the Cardinals do not sign him.
Reason to sign Morejon
Stats: 70 G, 74.1 IP, 27.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 54.4 GB%, .288 BABIP, 2.58 ERA/2.46 FIP/2.98 xFIP, 3 saves, 20 holds, 2.1 fWAR
If you are wondering what those stats are, they are not his 2026 stats. I took the average of his last three seasons, because it really illustrates just how elite of a reliever he is. And he was actually better in 2026 than that average suggests. He threw 86 IP last season in 76 games played, so he is very accustomed to pitching multiple innings. At least in theory, you can use Morejon in the middle to late high leverage innings for however long you need him, which is very rarely true for an elite reliever on the free agent market, who is normally used to closing out games and thus being restricted for one inning and the 9th.
He also had his highest GB% of his career and his highest K% of his career last year. He was better than he’s ever been although he did have a 2.03 ERA in 2025 (2.83 last year). He’s going to be 28 in the first year of his deal, and if you look at the list of free agent relievers after him, literally all of them are 30 or older unless Andres Munoz’s club option is rejected (it won’t be). So you have the best reliever and the youngest reliever, who can throw an amount of innings that makes you think it’s 1986 and who is willing to throw in any high leverage spot, not just the 9th inning. If you’re ever going to break your sign big money reliever rule, this is the guy to do it for.
I do also believe the Cardinals should spend money in this offseason, but their needs and the strengths of the free agent market do not line up well. There are not very good 3B or CF options in free agency, and the non-Skubal starting pitchers are kind of underwhelming. Why not use money you should have to instantly and massively improve the bullpen, the weakest part of the team if you aren’t excited about the other free agents? Most free agent relievers are bad investments because they are 30 and older. This guy is 28.
I cannot emphasize enough that the ideal version of Morejon is absolutely worth the money, it’s just that we don’t trust relievers. For most relievers on this market and really any market, if I learned they were signed for more than $20 million, I grit my teeth and hope it works out. If the Cardinals announced they signed Morejon to 5 years, $80 million, I would be excited.
That’s my best case for signing him. Onto the reasons not to.
Reasons to not sign Morejon
I began this by learning that relievers get paid $15 million per projected win. That doesn’t actually mean they are worth that. That means that’s what teams pay them. So strictly speaking, my proposed contract? He’s not worth the money. Again at least from a projection standpoint. Also, he’s a reliever. Just because he’s been reliable and just because he’s 28 does not exclude him from playing in just about the most unreliable spot in baseball. And while it is a positive he has proven to be able to pitch in 70+ games, let’s just say an injury would not be unexpected.
From a roster construction standpoint, the Cardinals may very quickly have no need for a left-handed reliever. I’m not entirely sure of what their plan is with Cooper Hjerpe, but if they intend to put him in the MLB bullpen next year, he might look something like a poor man’s Morejon and his potential is Morejon. He’s not the only lefty they have. Brandon Clarke sure seems destined for the bullpen as well. I’m guessing due to his injuries, he’d be a more one inning guy, but he could be in the MLB bullpen sooner than you’d think.
As for a surefire left-handed reliever who might be elite as soon as the middle of next season, Sandro Santana exists. He struck out 36% of batters in a limited amount of innings in Memphis to end last season. He started last season in High A. I doubt he makes the Opening Day roster, but if he comes even close to duplicating how he pitched in both High A and AA, he’ll be in St. Louis by June.
There’s also Justin Bruhl, although I would never advocate for not signing Morejon because of Bruhl. Same goes for Brycen Mautz. Mason Molina might soon be relegated to the bullpen. The Cardinals simply have a lot of left-handed pitchers who will very quickly be in the bullpen and a few of them have a very high potential. It’s not specifically a problem for half your bullpen to be left-handed, but I don’t know that you would spend $80 million if you already had 3-4 lefties you expected to make an impact during the duration of that contract. (Fairly early on in that contract in fact)
*Oh yeah duh Matthew Liberatore is also left-handed and maybe headed to the bullpen
And just as one final point, the money paid to him wouldn’t be an issue in this offseason, because it means the Cardinals didn’t find a better way to spend the money, which is very plausible, but the idea that they couldn’t find better ways to spend the money in years 3, 4, and 5 than for a 30+ year old reliever? That could, in the future, present more of a problem.
Conclusion
I’ll let you decide for yourselves. Like I said, I would be excited if they did this. I find it hard to believe they would find better uses of this money in the first couple years of his deal, just because the way the team is set up, they have plenty of excuses to not use the money in general. So I sort of look at as “it’s either him or nobody.” Which is why I’m more open to it than I otherwise would be. On year 4 of the deal, he might actually prevent the Cardinals from signing someone.
They never do it, but more money upfront would ease my concerns in this respect. Just to take an extreme stance here, if Chaim Bloom is given $30 million to spend on players, and doesn’t love any other option, so he uses that money for year 1 of an $80 million deal, it’s unlikely the end of this contract looks all that bad, even if his first year salary looks ridiculous. Also more money upfront is how you entice him to come here in the first place. So it works out both ways.
Book Corner
Frank is Dead suggested I have a book corner, because sometimes whatever I’m reading compels me to share my thoughts, and my outlet has been the comment section. My intention for this section will be to share my thoughts on books I am currently reading, but since I have nothing new to share about Alexander Hamilton by Ron Chernow at the moment, how about future books? I bought four books this week, most of them motivated by Chernow in some way.
His Masterly Pen: A Biography of Jefferson the Writer – The Founding Father’s Words That Shaped Revolutionary America by Fred Kaplan
Despite the title, my understanding is that Kaplan is not afraid to get critical of Jefferson using his own words, which frequently contradicted his actions. I have already read a biography of Jefferson by Jon Meacham, but Kaplan’s premise was too good for me to pass up.
Alexander Hamilton: The Persistence of Myth by Stephen F. Knott
I could have gotten this from the Chernow biography, as this predated it by a couple years. But I just as easily could have gotten it from another source and don’t remember. It was certainly found because of the Hamilton biography one way or the other. I assume covering the lies told by Philip Freneau, sometimes fed by Jefferson, and of course others as well.
James Monroe: A Life by Tim McGrath
He is the next president on my journey to read presidential biographies. Like James Madison, there wasn’t a clear, definitive pick. The Harry Ammon version from 1970 is apparently very dull and not all that entertaining even though it’s informative and there’s also one by Harlow Unger that is apparently comically biased. This was written in 2020 so I’m hopeful.
Demon Copperhead by Barbara Kingslover
I know literally nothing about this book, it was an impulse buy because I recognized the name of the book and I saw it won a Pulitzer.
Judging by this, you would think I almost exclusively read history books, but I do try to mix it up. In fact, because I try to mix it up, I don’t actually know when I will read any of the books I just bought. I already have something like 20 unread books at my house. Hopefully people enjoy this section, because I will sometimes use it selfishly, like asking for what books to read if I have multiple options or maybe I want to read from a particular author, but don’t know where to start. I had a goal to read 50 books by the end of the year and I have a lot of work left to do, so hopefully you guys will be impressed how quickly I seem to be reading. These 700 page books are not helping, as readable as it is.